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| Image From Wikimedia and Andy |
The San Francisco 49ers travel well, and the further from home they get the more profitable they've been. In fact, the Niners are 10-0 both straight up and against the spread in their last 10 regular-season games played in the Eastern Time Zone. San Francisco makes the first of four trips this season to the east when it visits Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers Sunday afternoon.
Point spread: The Steelers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.9-23.0 Steelers
Why the 49ers can cover the spread
Reports of the Niners' demise may have been greatly exaggerated. San Francisco began the post-Harbaugh era Monday night with a 20-3 victory over Minnesota, winning outright as a two-point home dog.
The Niners outrushed the Vikings by a 230-71 margin, as Carlos Hyde—their new No. 1 ball-carrier after the departure of Frank Gore—went off for 168 yards and two scores, and the defense—hit hard by attrition over the offseason—limited Minnesota to a total of 248 yards.
San Francisco was nearly given up for dead coming into this season but looked like a team trying to prove something Monday night. The Niners have a fresh set of legs in Hyde, a still-dangerous dual-threat quarterback in Colin Kaepernick and potentially a top-10 defense, despite the personnel losses. If it can move the chains, grind some clock and put some pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, San Francisco has a shot at pulling off the upset Sunday.
Why the Steelers can cover the spread
Pittsburgh opened its season last Thursday with a 28-21 loss at defending Super Bowl champion New England. The Steelers fell down 14-0 early, got to within 21-14 in the fourth quarter, then managed a backdoor push as seven-point underdogs when Roethlisberger connected with Antonio Brown for an 11-yard scoring pass with just two seconds left in the game.
In the end, Pittsburgh outgained the Patriots by 100 yards andoutrushed them 134-80, as newcomer DeAngelo Williams ran for 127 on 21 carries and the Steelers won time of possession by a 32-28 margin; usually numbers like that are conducive to covers.
The Steelers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've hosted teams from west of the Mississippi River. Pittsburgh owns an elite offense, and could simply outgun San Francisco Sunday.
Smart pick
San Francisco might not be as bad as the preseason prognostications predicted. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is only 5-10 ATS the last 15 times it's been favored by six points or more. The smart money here probably resides with the 49ers, plus the points.
Betting trends
The total has gone under in the 49ers' last three games on the road.
The total has gone under in five of the 49ers' last six games on the road in September.
The Steelers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games against the NFC West.
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